North American grocery retailers are navigating a consumer environment shaped by persistent value concerns, more frequent shopping trips and growing demand for personalized promotions, according to McKinsey & Company’s newly released State of Grocery North America 2026 report.
The report, based on surveys of consumers and grocery executives across the United States and Canada, found that value remains the dominant factor influencing shopping decisions despite moderating inflation.
Sixty percent of consumers surveyed said obtaining good value has become more important than it was a year ago. More than half (51%) reported reducing impulse purchases, while 47% said they are buying more private-label products. Another 43% said they are comparing prices more carefully, and 43% reported relying more heavily on promotions.
McKinsey’s research also found that consumers continue to judge a retailer’s value proposition based on a relatively small group of frequently purchased products. Eggs, milk, cheese, ground beef, chicken and bread ranked among the categories most likely to influence perceptions of value. Eggs were cited by 52% of respondents, followed by milk (50%), cheese (49%) and ground beef (47%).
At the same time, shopping behavior continues to evolve. Grocery purchase frequency increased 5% year over year between August 2024 and August 2025, according to the report, while units purchased per trip declined 3.2% and spending per trip fell 1.5%.
The report also highlighted the growing role of prepared foods and fresh departments in attracting shoppers. Approximately one-quarter of consumers reported purchasing prepared foods from grocery stores instead of restaurants, while prepared-food purchase frequency increased 9% year over year.
On the retailer side, executives identified value, fresh offerings, loyalty capabilities and operational efficiency as key priorities for the coming years.
Eighty-one percent of grocers surveyed said they expect to place greater emphasis on key value items in their promotional strategies, while 88% anticipate greater integration between promotions and loyalty programs. Another 88% expect increased use of targeted offers, and 84% foresee expanded personalization efforts.
McKinsey reported that retailers expect the share of fully personalized promotions to increase from 35% today to 55% within the next two to three years.
The report also found strong support among consumers for simpler pricing strategies. Seventy-one percent said they prefer lower, more consistent everyday pricing over a model that relies on frequent promotions and higher regular prices.
McKinsey concluded that competitive advantage in grocery is increasingly being shaped by interconnected capabilities rather than individual initiatives, with pricing, promotions, loyalty, private brands and fresh offerings working together to drive customer engagement and growth.
The report, State of Grocery North America 2026, was produced by McKinsey & Company in partnership with industry stakeholders and examines emerging trends across the U.S. and Canadian grocery sectors.