Changing appetites and tighter budgets could reshape Thanksgiving shopping, forcing retailers to rethink promotions, portions and profitability.
Thanksgiving has always been about abundance. Grocery stores stack turkeys in freezers, fill endcaps with stuffing and gravy, and encourage shoppers to add another pie or side dish. But growing GLP-1 adoption and financial pressure could make this year’s Thanksgiving basket look different.
PwC reported that 21% of U.S. households included a GLP-1 user as of May 2026, and found 5.5% lower grocery spending per GLP-1 household. That doesn’t mean Thanksgiving dinner is disappearing. It does mean grocers should reconsider portion sizes, promotional timing and how they measure holiday success.
Planning Early, Buying Later?
Thanksgiving shopping begins well before the holiday. A 2025 Breaktime Media survey found that 68% of respondents started planning at least two weeks ahead, while CivicScience reported that 37% expected to purchase meal groceries one week before Thanksgiving. Planning, however, doesn’t necessarily translate into purchasing.
Financial pressure could push some shoppers to delay purchases until another paycheck arrives or better promotions appear. Others may buy shelf-stable products earlier to spread expenses across several weeks. Retailers should prepare for both behaviors rather than expect identical shopping schedules.
For Thanksgiving 2026, November 26, grocers should begin promotions in late October. Early messaging should emphasize recipes, digital coupons and meal planning, followed by frozen turkeys and shelf-stable ingredients in early November. The final week should feature competitive pricing, fresh foods and last-minute solutions.
The Holiday Basket Isn’t Always Incremental
The American Farm Bureau Federation estimated that a classic Thanksgiving dinner for ten cost $55.18 in 2025, approximately $5.52 per person. That’s a standardized basket of traditional ingredients, not total household holiday spending. Appetizers, beverages, desserts and convenience foods can push actual spending considerably higher.
But higher Thanksgiving spending doesn’t necessarily mean higher monthly grocery sales. Families managing tight budgets may shift money from everyday meals, snacks and household staples toward turkey, sides and desserts. Leftovers can also replace regular meals, reducing postholiday grocery purchases.
Consider a hypothetical household that normally spends $200 weekly on groceries. Spending $275 during Thanksgiving week followed by $125 the next week produces the same $400 over two weeks. The holiday creates a temporary sales spike without generating additional household spending.
For retailers, that distinction matters. Turkey promotions may attract shoppers, but fewer complementary purchases or weaker regular grocery trips can undermine the benefit. Category managers should evaluate spending and gross margin across the weeks surrounding Thanksgiving not holiday-week sales alone.
Smaller Portions, Bigger Opportunities
Inmar research found that 38% of households reporting weight-loss supplement or appetite-control medication use anticipated smaller holiday meals or portions, and 30% expected to buy less food. Those findings aren’t limited to GLP-1 users, and smaller appetites don’t necessarily mean smaller gatherings. A family hosting ten guests may still need a full turkey, even if several guests eat less.
Retailers should offer flexibility without abandoning tradition. Half pies, mini desserts, smaller prepared sides and turkey breasts allow households to control quantities and reduce leftovers. Premium vegetables, specialty cheeses and chef-inspired sides could appeal to shoppers prioritizing quality over quantity.
However, smaller packages aren’t automatically more profitable. Two mini pies might generate more revenue than one standard pie, but additional labor and packaging can offset the benefit. Retailers should track gross margin dollars, inventory turns and shrink before expanding these formats.
A Changing Beverage Basket
GLP-1 medications may also influence holiday beverage purchases. An October 2026 EY-Parthenon survey found that 45% of surveyed GLP-1 users reported reducing alcohol consumption, and 40% reported stopping. That could affect traditional Thanksgiving wine and beer sales.
Nonalcoholic wine, alcohol-free beer, sparkling beverages and mocktail ingredients deserve greater visibility. Merchandising them alongside appetizers and cheese can make alternatives part of the celebration. Retailers should monitor total beverage sales and profitability because alcohol-free purchases may replace traditional sales.
Winning Beyond Thanksgiving Week
The challenge is balancing early planning, potentially delayed purchasing and changing appetites. Retailers need promotions that influence shopping lists in October while remaining competitive through Thanksgiving week. They also need to understand whether holiday purchases replace spending from regular grocery trips.
GLP-1 medications won’t eliminate Thanksgiving traditions, and financial pressures won’t stop families from gathering. But both could influence how much consumers purchase, when they shop and which products make the final cut. This Thanksgiving, success may depend less on the size of the holiday cart and more on protecting household spending and profitability throughout November.
